Forecasting Malaria Cases Among Pregnant Women in Rivers State Nigeria: A GARCH Time Series Analysis Modelling Using Reported Data
Lucky Wobodo Alerechi,
Anthony Ike Wegbom,
Clement Kevin Edet,
Emmanuel Oyinebifun Biu
Issue:
Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2022
Pages:
60-68
Received:
8 November 2022
Accepted:
28 November 2022
Published:
15 December 2022
DOI:
10.11648/j.bsi.20220704.11
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Views:
Abstract: Background: Malaria in pregnancy is considered a significant public health problem, for which over 25 million are at risk of the infection each year in sub-Sahara Africa including Nigeria. This is despite interventions and improvement in the diagnosis, and treatment techniques. This study, therefore, forecasted cases of malaria in pregnancy in Rivers State Nigeria in 2021 to 2024. Methods: The total number of reported malaria-in-pregnancy (MIP) cases from 2003 to 2020 was extracted from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) database. Descriptive statistics was obtained for the series plots, monthly mean plot, and yearly mean plot. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used to forecast the monthly number of MIP for 2021 to 2024. Results: The time series plot showed that there was a high volatility in the year 2020 in the malaria data. Also, the result shown that GARCH (0,1) and GARCH (1,1) parameters were all significant at 5% significance level. GARCH (1,1) model have least AIC value and log likelihood ratio among the several models. The study revealed an increasing trend in the number of MIP from 2021 to 2024. Conclusion: The study showed an expected increase for the forecasted period. The forecasted malaria cases will help Government and its health agencies, and critical stakeholders to plan and implement interventions to prevent the disease and mitigate its negative effects on mothers and fetus.
Abstract: Background: Malaria in pregnancy is considered a significant public health problem, for which over 25 million are at risk of the infection each year in sub-Sahara Africa including Nigeria. This is despite interventions and improvement in the diagnosis, and treatment techniques. This study, therefore, forecasted cases of malaria in pregnancy in Rive...
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