Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Caesarian Section Births in Ghana
Bosson-Amedenu Senyefia,
Otoo Joseph,
Eyiah-Bediako Francis
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 1, March 2019
Pages:
1-9
Received:
24 June 2019
Accepted:
12 July 2019
Published:
30 July 2019
Abstract: Caesarian Section (CS) rates have been known to have geographical varaitions. The purpose of this paper was to determine Ghana’s situation (regional trend) and also to provide a two- year forcast estimates for the ten (10) regions of Ghana. The data was longitudinal and comprised monthly CS records of women from 2008 to 2017. The dataset was divided into training and testing dataset. A total of eighty four (84) months were used as the training dataset and the remaining thirty six (36) months were used as testing dataset. The ARIMA methodology was applied in the analysis. Augmented Dicker-Fuller (ADF), KPSS and the Philips-Perron (PP) unit root tests were employed to test for stationarity of the series plot. KPSS (which is known to give more robust results) and PP test consistently showed that the series was stationary (p ＜ 0.05) for all ten (10) regions, although there were some conflicting results with the ADF test for some regions. Tentative models were formulated for each region and the model with the lowest AIC was selected as the “Best” model fit for respective regions of Ghana. The “best” Model fit for Greater Accra, Central and Eastern regions were respectively SARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12, SARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 with a Drift and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12. Additionally, the best model fit for Northern and Volta regions were SARIMA (3,0,2) (0,1,1)12 with drift and SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12. Ashanti, Upper East and Western regions failed the JB test or the normality test for the residuals. Upper West and Brong Ahafo Regions were not suitable for forecasting due failure to depict white noise and ARCH test failure, respectively. The best models fit were used to forecast for 2019 and 2020. The results showed that regional variations of CS exist in Ghana. The study recommended for future studies to apply methods that will allow for forecasting for regions which failed the test under the methods used in this study.
Abstract: Caesarian Section (CS) rates have been known to have geographical varaitions. The purpose of this paper was to determine Ghana’s situation (regional trend) and also to provide a two- year forcast estimates for the ten (10) regions of Ghana. The data was longitudinal and comprised monthly CS records of women from 2008 to 2017. The dataset was divide...
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Logistic Regression on Effects of Relationship Between Condom Use on Comprehensive HIV Knowledge Among the Youths in Kenya
Kenneth Kipkorir Terer,
Reuben Langat,
Joyce Otieno
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 1, March 2019
Pages:
10-14
Received:
9 July 2019
Accepted:
31 July 2019
Published:
13 August 2019
Abstract: HIV/AIDS knowledge in Kenya is universal in that 99% of both male and female have heard of the epidemic and how it can be avoided. Despite the widespread knowledge of HIV/AIDS, comprehensive HIV knowledge which refers to one being able to correctly identify the modes of HIV transmission and reject the most common misconception about HIV transmission among the youths, is just above average, 65% for males and 54% for females. There seems to be lack of information on the effects of the determinants of comprehensive HIV knowledge among the youths. This study, using KDHS 2014 data, investigates the effect of the relationship between condoms use and comprehensive HIV knowledge among the youths in Kenya. A logistic regression model is used to explore the effects of relationship between condoms usage and comprehensive HIV knowledge among the youths. Comprehensive HIV knowledge among the youths aged 15-19 was 12.9% while those aged 20-24 was 87.1% and on average 55.5%. Significant association was found between consistent use of condoms during the first sexual intercourse and comprehensive HIV knowledge with a p-value < 0.001. 78.8% of the youths consistently use condoms during their first sexual intercourse. Interestingly, results showed that condoms use have no effect on comprehensive HIV knowledge which means there are other factors that influence comprehensive HIV knowledge that seems to suppress the effect of condoms use. Nevertheless, much intervention among the youths aged 15-19 should be considered to increase the level of comprehensive HIV knowledge. Further research need to be conducted to determine the effect of the relationships between other correlates of comprehensive HIV knowledge among the youths in Kenya.
Abstract: HIV/AIDS knowledge in Kenya is universal in that 99% of both male and female have heard of the epidemic and how it can be avoided. Despite the widespread knowledge of HIV/AIDS, comprehensive HIV knowledge which refers to one being able to correctly identify the modes of HIV transmission and reject the most common misconception about HIV transmissio...
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